CHICAGO—Entering the All-Star break as one of baseball’s most difficult teams to evaluate, the 2026 Cubs have looked like a legitimate National League contender, ripping off multiple lengthy winning streaks and boasting one of the game’s most productive offenses. At others, inconsistent starting pitching, bullpen collapses, and prolonged slumps from key veterans have left them looking far more ordinary.

The first half wasn’t perfect. Yet, the North Siders have remained in the playoff picture. With a 54-42 record heading into the second half, Chicago holds the top spot in the National League Wild Card race, sitting 2.5 games up on the Philadelphia Phillies and five games back of the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central.

Offense: A-

On the surface, the Cubs have been one of baseball’s elite offenses.

The Cubs entered the break ranked among the top 10 in nearly every major offensive category:

• 19.3 fWAR (1st MLB)
• 109 wRC+ (3rd)
• 484 total runs (5th)
• 452 RBI (5th)
• 121 home runs (T-8th w/ Atlanta)
• 417 walks (1st)
• .244 AVG (14th)
• .336 OBP (4th)
• .411 SLG (10th)
• .747 OPS (4th)

Unlike last season, when Chicago relied heavily on hard contact, this year’s lineup has transformed into one of baseball’s most disciplined.

No club has drawn more walks.

The lineup consistently forces pitchers into deep counts, extends innings, and creates scoring opportunities without relying exclusively on home runs and hard contact.

That approach has helped offset a surprising decline in quality contact. The Cubs own a 7.3% barrel rate, ranking 23rd in baseball after finishing fifth a season ago. Chicago’s 4.8 barrels per plate appearance ranks 25th, while average exit velocity (88.6 mph) and hard-hit rate (39.3%) have both declined from 2025.

That creates an interesting question.

Can an offense really be a contender for best in baseball despite ranking near the bottom of the league in barrels?

So far, the answer has been yes.

Their plate discipline has more than compensated for the drop in loud contact, though whether that formula holds over a full season remains one of the biggest storylines entering the second half.

Just as importantly, Chicago has avoided the rash of position-player injuries that has plagued the pitching staff.

Pete Crow-Armstrong: A+

No player has defined the Cubs season more than Pete Crow-Armstrong.

Developing into one of baseball’s most valuable players, the Cubs center fielder has garnered 5.5 WAR before the All-Star break. Already exceeding his entire 2025 WAR (5.4).

While Crow-Armstrong’s defense remains elite, the biggest leap has come offensively and emotionally.

The young superstar is walking more than ever and keeping his helmet on his head more often. Crow-Armstrong has boosted his on-base percentage to .380, an increase of more than 90 points from 2025, thanks to dramatically improved swing decisions and a much more disciplined approach at the plate.

In 2025, the Cubs center fielder hit .188 with a .594 OPS against left-handed pitching. This year, Crow-Armstrong is mashing lefties, batting .291 with an .864 OPS.

Simply put, Crow-Armstrong has evolved from an elite defender into one of baseball’s most complete players.

Seiya Suzuki: B

Suzuki has quietly remained one of Chicago’s most productive hitters despite a noticeable decline in the quality of his contact. The right fielder has continued to anchor the middle of the lineup and has been one of the Cubs most valuable offensive contributors, even if his overall production hasn’t matched last season’s peak.

The biggest changes have been Suzuki’s barrel rate and production with runners in scoring position. After posting an elite 16.6% barrel rate (12th MLB) in 2025, Suzuki’s mark has dropped to 9.2% in 2026. The decline has severely limited some of the impact contact that made him one of the National League’s most dangerous hitters.

In 2026, the Cubs right fielder is hitting just .198 with a .639 OPS in those situations after batting .309 with a .991 OPS with runners in scoring position in 2025. If the hard contact rebounds and those numbers begin to normalize, Suzuki has the potential to elevate an already strong Cubs offense into baseball’s most dangerous lineup.

Alex Bregman: D

Few players have fallen short of the mark more than Alex Bregman.

After signing a five-year, $175 million contract to stabilize the middle of Chicago’s lineup, the veteran third baseman has endured the worst offensive season of his career. Entering the All-Star break, slashing .241/.336/.359 with a .695 OPS, a significant drop from the .273 average and .822 OPS he posted last year with Boston.

The underlying metrics help explain the decline. Bregman’s strikeout rate has climbed to 15.3%—still comfortably better than the league average of 22.2%, but up from 14.1% last season and above his career mark of 13.6%. More concerning has been the lack of authoritative contact. His 4.2% barrel rate is well below both the MLB average (7.6%) and his career average (6.2%), limiting the extra-base damage that has defined much of his career.

To Bregman’s credit, his defense has been stellar with a .981 fielding percentage and four errors. The Cubs third baseman has quietly become a reliable defender after an uneven start.

Still, Chicago didn’t sign Bregman to be an above-average defender; they signed him to add some thump to the middle of an already strong offense. If Chicago hopes to make a deep postseason run, it’ll need the version of Bregman who consistently drove the ball, controlled the strike zone, and punished mistakes. His track record suggests that turnaround is possible, but it will need to begin quickly after the All-Star break.

Nico Hoerner: C-

This has been one of the most disappointing offensive seasons of Hoerner’s career.

Hoerner owns a slash line of .233/.305/.326 with a 78 OPS+, while batting just .202 since the start of May.

Without the productive opening month, the grade would be considerably lower. Fortunately for Chicago, Hoerner’s elite defense continues to save runs nightly.

Dansby Swanson: C

Swanson’s overall numbers don’t fully tell the story.

Once again, defensively, Swanson is among baseball’s premier shortstops and appears well on his way toward another Gold Glove.

Offensively, inconsistency has defined his first half.

In June, Swanson reminded everyone how dangerous he can be. The Cubs shortstop hit nearly .400 with nine home runs and 30 RBI during an explosive 18-game stretch. It followed the worst stretch at the plate in Swanson’s career. On June 9th, the 32-year-old was running a .180/.285/.322 slash line and a .606 OPS. Today, Swanson sits at .211/.293/.412 with a .705 OPS; a 99-point jump in OPS since June 9th.

Even if a portion of that production can be sustained, Chicago’s lineup becomes considerably deeper. Especially if all three struggling veteran infielders can turn things around after the break.

Michael Busch: B-

Following his breakout 2025 campaign, Busch has struggled to find the same offensive consistency this season. Like several of his teammates, the first baseman has experienced a noticeable decline in quality contact. His barrel rate has fallen from 17.1% in 2025 to 10.1% this season, contributing to a dip in overall production.

One of the biggest reasons has been his performance against four-seam fastballs. After batting .273 with a .605 slugging percentage against the pitch in 2025, Busch is hitting just .200 with a .344 slugging percentage against four-seamers this season. The inability to consistently drive the fastball has limited the power that made him one of the Cubs most dangerous hitters a year ago.

Still, there have been encouraging developments as well.

Busch has made significant strides against left-handed pitching, transforming himself from a platoon bat into an everyday fixture in Craig Counsell’s lineup. After hitting .207 with a .642 OPS against lefties in 2025, he’s batting .259 with a .790 OPS against them this season.

The plate discipline has also taken another step forward. Like many hitters throughout the Cubs lineup, Busch has embraced a more patient approach, posting a 14.9% walk rate—the highest of his young career and a 5.4 percentage point increase from 2025. That mark ranks seventh overall in Major League Baseball and has helped offset some of the decline in hard contact.

If Busch begins driving fastballs the way he did a year ago, his combination of improved plate discipline and success against left-handed pitching could make him one of the Cubs biggest second-half breakout candidates.

Ian Happ: C

Happ has continued to provide value in several areas, but his offensive consistency has taken a step back in 2026. While he remains an elite defender with a strong throwing arm, his approach at the plate has become noticeably more aggressive, leading to more swing-and-miss.

The left fielder’s chase rate has climbed from 20.8% to 24.3%, accompanied by increases in out-of-zone contact (+4.8%), out-of-zone swing rate (+3.5%), and whiff rate, which has jumped from 24.6% to 32.1%. As a result, Happ’s strikeout rate has risen from 22.8% last season to 31.5%, the second-highest mark of his career behind only his 36.1% season in 2018.

Despite those struggles, Happ continues to impact games in other ways. His walk rate remains among the league’s best, his barrel percentage is still elite, and his defense has been as reliable as ever. The biggest concern has come from the right side of the plate. Happ is batting just .163 with a .560 OPS, down from .231 with a .688 OPS against lefties in 2025.

If Happ can regain the disciplined approach that has defined much of his career and cut down on the chase rate, there’s reason to believe his production against left-handed pitching—and his overall offensive numbers—will regress to the mean during the second half.

Miguel Amaya: C-

Amaya has followed the same offensive trend as much of the Cubs lineup: more patience at the plate, but less consistent contact. His walk rate has jumped 7.5 percentage points from last season, and he has already drawn 18 walks before the All-Star break, just five shy of his career high 23 walks set in 2024.

While his improved plate discipline has helped boost the on base percentage, his batting average and slugging percentage have both declined from a year ago. The increased walks have made him a more productive offensive player overall, but the lack of extra-base production has limited his impact.

One of Amaya’s biggest struggles has been against breaking pitches. He’s hitting just .159 against them after batting .256 against breaking balls in 2025. The improved plate discipline is an encouraging sign, but if Amaya can make the necessary adjustments against breaking pitches, he’ll become a much more complete offensive catcher.

Carson Kelly: B+

The Cubs backstop has quietly put together one of the best offensive seasons of his career, setting career highs in batting average (.273), slugging percentage (.363), and OPS (.763) heading into the All-Star break. While he hasn’t provided the same home run power as in previous years, he’s become a more complete hitter and one of the Cubs steadier contributors behind the plate.

A big reason for his offensive improvement has been his success against fastballs. Kelly is batting .320 against heaters after hitting just .245 against them a season ago. The 32-year-old has struggled more against breaking pitches, going from a .252 batting average against breaking pitches in 2025 to a .181 batting average this season. A decline in both his barrel rate and average launch angle has also contributed to a decrease in extra-base power.

Even with the reduced slugging profile, Kelly’s approach has improved. The walk rate has ticked up to 11.2%, while the strikeout rate has dropped 2.3 percentage points to 16.7%, allowing Kelly to reach base more consistently.

His value extends beyond the batter’s box. Kelly has recorded three blocks above average (80th percentile) and has excelled with MLB’s automated ball-strike challenge system, winning 33 of 43 challenges. Among catchers with at least 30 challenges, his 76.7% success rate ranked second only to J.T. Realmuto’s 79%.

The combination of improved offensive production, dependable defense, and elite game management has made Kelly one of the Cubs most reliable players and earned him a well-deserved B+ for the first half.

Michael Conforto: B+

After a disappointing 2025 season, Conforto has re-established himself as a valuable piece of the Cubs roster. Whether coming off the bench as a pinch hitter, hitting a walk-off homer, filling in for injured players, or providing veteran leadership in the clubhouse, Conforto has consistently delivered when called upon.

The quality of contact has rebounded in a big way since 2025. Conforto’s barrel rate has increased 3.1 percentage points to 12.8%, a sign that he’s once again driving the baseball with authority. The Cubs have also deployed him almost exclusively in favorable matchups, as 254 of his plate appearances have come against right-handed pitchers compared to just six against left-handers. Against righties, the 33-year-old has hit .230 with a .755 OPS, giving Chicago dependable left-handed production.

There are still areas of concern. The whiff rate has climbed five percentage points to 29.9%, while his strikeout rate has increased 4.5 points to 29.4%, suggesting he’s sacrificing some contact for power. Conforto has also struggled to capitalize with runners in scoring position, batting .188 with a .638 OPS in those situations.

Even with those shortcomings, Conforto has embraced his role and provided the Cubs with quality at-bats, timely power, and roster flexibility. Considering the expectations after last season and the inconsistent playing time, his bounce-back first half earns him a B+.

Young Contributors

Matt Shaw, Pedro Ramirez, Kevin Alcántara, and Moisés Ballesteros have all contributed in varying roles, though none have been asked to carry significant offensive responsibility for a prolonged period.

Pitching: C+

Considering the circumstances, simply surviving the first half deserves recognition.

The Cubs have already used 31 different pitchers through July 7, the most in Major League Baseball. Only three pitchers from the opening day staff haven’t had an IL stint: Shota Imanaga, Colin Rea, and Jacob Webb.

Notable Cubs Pitchers on IL:

RHP Ben Brown (Neck)

RHP Edward Cabrera (Adductor/Hamstring)

RHP Cade Horton (Elbow)

LHP Justin Steele (Elbow)

RHP Daniel Palenica

Despite the constant turnover, the rotation has remained surprisingly competitive.

The bullpen has not.

Chicago enters the break with only 20 saves (25th in MLB), allowing 60 homers off relievers (2nd), and a .245 batting average against (20th).

As expected, the starting rotation has seen a drop in ERA from last season, going from a 3.83 ERA in 2025 to a 4.52 ERA in 2026.

Shota Imanaga: B

Imanaga’s first half can be described as inconsistently consistent.

The southpaw’s traditional numbers don’t fully reflect how well he’s pitched. A handful of blow-up outings inflated his 4.17 ERA, but his underlying metrics suggest he’s been better than the results indicate. Imanaga owns a 3.74 expected ERA, ranks in the 97th percentile in chase rate (37.4%), and has increased his whiff rate from 24.6% in 2025 to 29.9% this season, showing his swing and miss stuff has actually improved.

The biggest issue has been the long ball. Imanaga has surrendered 22 home runs in 108 innings, preventing him from consistently working deep into games despite allowing just a 1.12 WHIP and striking out nearly a batter per inning.

If Imanaga can limit the damage on mistake pitches, the 32-year-old has all the ingredients to be the Cubs ace during the second half.

Matthew Boyd: N/A

Boyd’s grade is more incomplete than disappointing.

Injuries have limited him to just a handful of starts, making it difficult to fairly evaluate his first half. When healthy, Boyd has continued to miss bats and generate weak contact, but availability for the veteran has been the biggest hurdle.

If the 35-year-old can stay on the mound after the All-Star break, Boyd still can be a No.1 or No.2 starter.

Colin Rea: B

Rea has once again become the definition of reliability.

Originally expected to serve in a swing role, the veteran right-hander has stepped into the rotation whenever needed and helped stabilize a pitching staff devastated by injuries. He enters the break with 19 appearances (15 starts) and a 7-5 record, consistently giving the Cubs valuable innings despite constantly changing roles.

The 4.75 ERA that Rea owns doesn’t jump off the page, and yeah, some of his underlying metrics are a little concerning, but Rea’s value extends way beyond the numbers. The right-hander has answered every call, helped bridge countless rotation injuries, and allowed Craig Counsell to keep the staff afloat during one of the most injury-plagued pitching seasons in baseball.

Javier Assad: A-

Assad has played a similar role as Rea and has been excellent the last two months. After a rough start to the season and a demotion to Triple-A, the 28-year-old has been nothing short of a lifesaver. Posting a 3.16 ERA in June and a 1.86 ERA in July.

Thrust into a larger role due to injuries, Assad has become one of the rotation’s most dependable arms, consistently providing quality starts when Chicago desperately needed stability.

If he maintains this level of consistency, Assad should remain one of Chicago’s biggest second-half difference makers, whether that’s in the rotation or out of the pen.

Edward Cabrera: D

Few Cubs have been more disappointing than Cabrera.

Acquired to strengthen the middle of the rotation, Cabrera instead struggled with inconsistency before injuries interrupted his season. The 28-year-old enters the break with a 5.10 ERA, allowing 14 home runs in just 72 ⅓ innings while posting a 1.40 WHIP.

Between the injuries and uneven performance, Cabrera’s future role remains uncertain. At this point, it wouldn’t be surprising if he returned in a bullpen role rather than reclaiming a spot in the starting rotation.

Jameson Taillon: D

Taillon never found the consistency the Cubs needed before landing on the injured list.

The 34-year-old hurler finished the first half with a 5.19 ERA, while allowing 20 home runs in just 67 ⅔ innings, one of the highest home run rates among qualified starters. Taillon’s career high 6.31 fielding independent pitching (FIP) suggests the underlying performance was even less encouraging than the ERA indicates.

The veteran has shown throughout his career that he’s capable of bouncing back from adversity. The rebound will need to be a much stronger showing than the first half if Taillon is going to finish the year on a positive note.

Ben Brown: A

Before suffering a neck injury, Brown looked like he was putting together a breakout campaign.

Emerging as the Cubs most reliable starter, Brown gave the club 68 innings with a 4-2 record, 1.85 ERA, and 65 strikeouts before finding himself on the injured list. The injury was yet another blow to an already depleted rotation, but the performance before landing on the injured list was among the brightest developments of the first half.

If healthy, Brown has the potential to be one of Chicago’s most impactful pitchers.

Daniel Palencia: N/A

Palencia’s 2026 campaign has been interrupted by injury, making it difficult to fairly evaluate his performance. When healthy, the flame-throwing righty continues to flash high-octane heaters and late-inning heroics that have made him the organization’s most sought-after reliever. Palencia’s 16.2 innings of work aren’t enough to warrant a full grade.

Phil Maton: F

One of the biggest offseason bullpen additions has struggled mightily.

Maton owns a 6.08 ERA, a sharp decline from the 2.79 ERA he posted in 2025 and well above his 4.09 career ERA. Injuries throughout the bullpen forced him into high-leverage situations, but he never established the consistency Chicago expected.

For a veteran signed to a two-year $14.5 million contract, the first half has been a major disappointment to say the least.

Hunter Harvey: F

Harvey’s grade has everything to do with lofty expectations for a one-year $6 million contract with a 2027 mutual option with a $1 million buyout. He’s pitched four innings to the tune of a 6.75 ERA. Yet another veteran off-season addition that’s had a total bust of a first half.

A reliever can’t help games he’s unavailable for, making the signing one of the Cubs biggest disappointments of the first half.

Jacob Webb: A

Webb has quietly become one of Chicago’s most dependable relievers.

While much of the bullpen struggled with injuries and inconsistency, Webb consistently delivered quality innings in a variety of situations. His ability to throw strikes, limit damage, and pitch in leverage situations made him one of Craig Counsell’s most trusted bullpen arms throughout the first half.

Hoby Milner: C+

Milner’s overall numbers don’t tell the complete story.

Before undergoing an appendectomy, the veteran left-hander had been one of the Cubs more reliable relievers. Two disastrous outings significantly inflated his number, masking what was otherwise a productive first half.

If he returns healthy, Milner should once again become a dependable left-handed option for the bullpen.

Caleb Thielbar: F

The veteran southpaw never found his footing in the first half.

Whether because of diminished effectiveness or inconsistent command, Thielbar struggled to provide dependable innings and quickly fell out of being a high-leverage reliever. The walk, hard hit, and barrel percentage are all up considerably, as well as a career high 5.27 FIP. The Cubs expected far more from an experienced reliever brought in to add stability.

Ryan Rolison: A

Rolison has quietly become one of the bullpen’s pleasant surprises.

The left-hander has provided quality innings whenever called upon, limiting damage while giving Counsell another trustworthy option during a season defined by pitching injuries. He hasn’t been flashy (2.80 ERA and 3.98 FIP), but he’s consistently done exactly what the Cubs have asked of him, making Rolison one of the bullpen’s more valuable depth pieces during the first half.

Craig Counsell (A+)

Counsell has arguably done one of the finest managing jobs of his career.

Despite losing multiple starting pitchers, constantly reshuffling the bullpen, and watching several veterans struggle offensively, the Cubs remained firmly in postseason contention entering the break.

The clubhouse has never appeared to splinter during prolonged stretches of adversity, and Chicago has consistently responded after difficult losses with extended winning streaks.

No manager has had to juggle more moving parts this season than Counsell.

First-Half MVP: Pete Crow-Armstrong

There isn’t much debate.

Crow-Armstrong has become one of baseball’s premier center fielders while developing into the engine of the Cubs offense.

The 24-year-old has improved his discipline, become a dangerous hitter against left-handed pitching, remained an elite defender, and already surpassed last year’s WAR before the All-Star break.

If Chicago reaches October, Crow-Armstrong will almost certainly be the biggest reason why.

Final Verdict

Overall Grade: B+

The Cubs have been equally encouraging and frustrating through the season’s first half.

Chicago owns one of baseball’s most productive offenses despite a decline in quality of contact metrics. Pete Crow-Armstrong has blossomed into a bona fide superstar, and the Cubs have remained competitive despite using more pitchers than any team in baseball.

At the same time, underwhelming performances from Alex Bregman, Nico Hoerner, and several key offseason additions (Cabrera, Maton, and Harvey) have prevented Chicago from separating itself in the National League.

The ingredients for a deep postseason run are still present. Whether the Cubs can reach that ceiling may depend on three things over the final two and a half months: improved health on the mound, rebound performances from veteran hitters, and whether their patient, walk-heavy offensive approach can continue to overcome a lack of consistent hard contact.