CHICAGO — Four hours before Monday’s matchup against the Colorado Rockies, Cubs’ third baseman Alex Bregman took hacks under the batting turtle. The clanks off the left-field bleachers as the media entered the stadium were a testament to the work Bregman puts in when no one is watching.
Fans care little about the anecdotal evidence of hard work; they want to see that hard work pay off in the form of results on the field.
And they want those results now.
For weeks we’ve heard the clichés “over the course of 162, the cream always rises to the top.”, Alex Bregman said after a tough series loss to Milwaukee in mid-May.
Ian Happ has delivered similar messages during multiple appearances on 104.3 The Score.
“Just the law of averages, guys, it has to turn. I’m telling ya. It’s not possible for us to go an entire season with the lack of runners in scoring position success that we’ve had,” Happ exclaimed, “there’s such a thing called regression to the mean, and that’s coming.”
Those comments became easy targets as the Cubs stumbled through June, dropping eight of their last 15 games against sub-.500 opponents and watching their early-season division lead disappear.
On Wednesday, Cubs’ veterans quieted the noise, at least temporarily.
Chicago batted around the order in the second inning and notched seven runs in the frame. Matt Shaw stayed red hot and hustled around the bases for a two-RBI triple. In the last seven games, Shaw is hitting .429 with six hits and four RBI.
Contributions from Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, Alex Bregman and Ian Happ were notable and much needed departures from the club’s recent struggles with runners in scoring position.
Swanson used a favorable 15 mph southerly breeze to guide a 0-1 fastball out of the yard for a two-run homer to give the Cubs a 5-0 lead. The Friendly Confines erupted for their struggling shortstop who hadn’t hit a long ball since May 18.
One inning cannot erase weeks of inconsistency from the players expected to carry the offense. The Cubs need their highest-paid veterans to perform like the franchise cornerstones, not complementary pieces.
Even though Shaw led off the scoring with a bases-clearing triple, symbolically, the Cubs’ breakout frame belonged to the veterans. This is the second straight series win and the Cubs are now 39-36 (.520).
Leadoff Lift-Off
Craig Counsell has found his leadoff man in Pete Crow-Armstrong.
In 20 games leading off, Crow-Armstrong has 31 hits, seven doubles, two triples, eight home runs, and 13 RBI. The Cubs’ center fielder has a slash line of .373/.426/.795 with a 1.221 OPS and has hit three home runs in the last three games.
For comparison, Nico Hoerner led off for 48 games and had 51 hits with four home runs, 28 RBI and a .260 batting average.
Michael Busch led off for seven games and had five hits with a .200 batting average, no big shots and one RBI.
The Core Isn’t Carrying the Load
The Cubs’ struggles cannot be pinned solely on injuries.
A significant portion of Chicago’s payroll has underperformed relative to expectations.
Alex Bregman, who signed a five-year, $175 million contract this offseason, is slashing 250/.341/.353 with a .694 OPS. While those numbers would be acceptable for many players, they fall well below the career .271/.364/.473 slash line and .837 OPS that made him one of the most sought-after free agents on the market.
Dansby Swanson’s decline has been even more pronounced.
The veteran shortstop is hitting just 176/.280/.318 with a .598 OPS, a steep drop from his career .247/.316/.409 slash line and .725 OPS. Swanson remains one of the game’s premier defenders, but the Cubs need more offensive production from a player in the fourth year of a seven-year, $177 million contract.
Nico Hoerner, who signed a six-year, $141 million extension on March 26, 2026, beginning in 2027, has also struggled to match his established offensive baseline. Hoerner owns a .233/.311/.325 slash line and .636 OPS this season, down from his career marks of .277/.337/.378 and .715 OPS.
Combined, Bregman, Swanson and Hoerner account for roughly 29 percent of the Cubs’ estimated $232 million payroll, according to FanGraphs.
While each player has a lengthy track record of success, Chicago’s margin for error has shrunk considerably as injuries have depleted the pitching staff.
The bullpen has not been immune to those struggles.
Phil Maton, signed to a two-year $14.5 million contract, has posted a 5.92 ERA, 1.77 WHIP and opponents are hitting for a .299 batting average against him. Those marks are all significantly worse than his career averages of a 4.08 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and a .237 opponent batting average.
Complicating matters further, the Cubs have limited roster flexibility heading into the trade deadline.
Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Nico Hoerner, and Alex Bregman all have full no-trade clauses, while Jameson Taillon has a partial no-trade clause that allows him to block deals from 10 teams.
A Rotation Held Together by Tape
Edward Cabrera exited Tuesday’s 5-2 loss to the Rockies in the fifth inning due to a cramp in his right hand. The Cubs are optimistic he’ll stay off the injured list and be ready for his next start. Only three starts removed from landing on the injured list due to a blister on his right middle finger.
“All things considered, he’s good,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell said. “It’s a cramp right now, as far as we can tell.”
The Cubs have been through the ringer when it comes to starting pitching injuries this season. Cade Horton was put on the injured list after only two starts this year due to a right elbow injury that needed season-ending surgery.
Left-hander Justin Steele, who was injured in April of last season, had left elbow surgery and was planning on a return this spring until a left flexor strain changed those plans. Steele is back with the club this week, and assuming no further setbacks, he’ll begin throwing again next Monday.
Left-handed pitcher Matthew Boyd suffered a left knee injury playing with kids in early May and needed surgery. Boyd was targeting a return last week, but had a setback due to shoulder soreness.
Right-hander Jameson Taillon suffered a left hamstring injury in the second inning on June 7 and will be out until after the All-Star break.
What looked like a strength in April has become a patchwork rotation relying heavily on depth pieces.
Since coming back as a starter for the injured Jameson Taillon, Javier Assad has been spectacular. Assad has a 1.00 ERA, nine hits, two earned runs, two walks, and 11 strikeouts over 18 innings of work.
Ben Brown has been by far the most impressive arm this year, posting a 1.74 ERA, with 41 hits, 12 earned runs, one home run, and 19 walks in 62 innings of work. Since Brown filled in for Matthew Boyd, he hasn’t skipped a beat. Providing much-needed consistency to a rotation that’s been dismantled by injuries.
The Stretch That Will Define the Cubs’ Season
Following the conclusion of the homestand against the Blue Jays, the North Siders go on a seven-game road trip against the 33-41 New York Mets and 45-26 Milwaukee Brewers.
Milwaukee is rolling to a franchise-best start and holds an eight-game lead over the Cubs. Chicago sits in third place in the NL Central and is tied with San Diego and Washington for the third NL Wild Card.
The 2026 Cubs have been impossible to define.
Won 10 straight twice, suffered through a 10-game losing streak and authored nine walk-off victories. Every time it appears they’ve turned a corner, another skid follows.
Maybe Happ and Bregman are right, and positive regression is finally arriving.
With 47 days until the trade deadline and some tough opponents ahead, they won’t have to wait long to find out. Seven out of the twelve remaining series before the deadline are against teams above .500.
